Dalla sinergia tra Confindustria e la Rivista di Politica Economica nasce il progetto
A New Measure of Capacity Utilisation Gap for the Italian Economy

Luciana Crosilla*,

Solange Leproux#,

Marco Malgarini§,

The aim of our paper is to derive a new measure of capacity utilisation gap for Italy, relying on firm level information stemming from the ISTAT manufacturing survey. The Non-Inflationary Rate of Capacity Utilisation (NIRCU) is defined as the capacity utilisation rate at which firms do not feel pressures to adjust prices; the main advantages are that the indicator is available in real time and is micro-founded. Our measure performs well as an indicator of inflationary pressures. In Italy the gap is now at its highest in the last 25 years, a finding with relevant implication for fiscal policies.

[JEL Classification: E31; E32; E62].

Keywords: capacity utilisation; NIRCU; inflation; Phillips curve.

lcrosilla@istat.it, Servizio statistiche congiunturali sulle imprese.
sleproux@istat.it, Servizio statistiche congiunturali sulle imprese.
malgmarco@gmail.com, Area Valutazione della Ricerca.

The authors are grateful to an anonymous referee for his precious comments.
The views expressed in the paper do not involve the responsibility of ANVUR and ISTAT.