Dalla sinergia tra Confindustria e la Rivista di Politica Economica nasce il progetto
Real-Time Evaluation of GDP in Some Eurozone Countries

Claudia Guagliano*,
University of Calabria and Markets Authority, Paris

Cristiano Mantovani #,
Pompeu Fabra University Barcelona


Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is collected at low frequency and released with a substantial lag. The goal of this paper is to have the most timely and accurate idea about GDP, using all the available information. We follow Camacho et al. (2010) introducing a transparent and small-scale model taking into account the data revision procedure used by statistical offices and addressing all the issues of real-time forecasting. Our results show that the model performs well during the sample, in terms of trend and magnitude.

[JEL Classification: E32; C22; E27].

Keywords: business cycles; output growth; time series.



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*
claudia.guagliano@esma.europa.eu, Risk Analysis and Economics Department.
#
cristiano.mantovani@upf.edu, Department of Economics (Ph.D. student).
The Authors would like to thank the anonymous referee of the journal for his valuable comments and suggestions. Responsibility for the views expressed in the paper, which do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the European Securities and Markets Authority, and for any errors or omissions lies solely with the authors.
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